How the next U.S. president could change the course of Israel’s wars

How will the next U.S. president change the course of the wars Israel is fighting on multiple fronts? The elections are already making a difference in Israel’s calculations.

Senior Biden administration officials have stepped up efforts in recent days to resolve the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza — which would bring a boost to Vice President Harris in her election bid — but Israeli analysts say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting to see who is voted into the White House.

“I don’t see him rushing for a deal until the election,” said political strategist Nadav Shtrauchler, who ran Netanyahu’s 2019 reelection campaign. “This is something that doesn’t help this administration, and maybe somehow does help Trump.”

It’s no secret Netanyahu and members of his government would feel more at ease with former President Donald Trump, once his close ally, back in the White House.

“Of course I do not want Kamala Harris, who thinks we’re committing a genocide in Gaza, to be elected,” said Tally Gotliv, a lawmaker from Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party. (Harris has not said Israel is committing a genocide.)

Some of Netanyahu’s political partners moved quickly this past week to pass a law that would block a future Democratic administration from reopening the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem that served the Palestinian leadership. The Trump administration closed the consulate in 2019.

Still, both candidates want a quick end to Israel’s expanding wars in the Mideast.

Here’s a look at what’s at stake in the Middle East after a new U.S. president is elected.

Both candidates want a cease-fire, but on what terms?

In Gaza and Lebanon, Israeli analysts predict Trump would give Netanyahu a freer hand, while Israel would need to make more compromises under Harris.

The Biden administration has threatened to cut U.S. military aid to Israel if it does not allow a surge of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and Harris is expected to take a similar stance with Israel.

“I think with Kamala Harris, Israel will probably expect a more confrontational approach that aims to, in some ways, tie Israel’s hands,” said Shmuel Rosner, an Israeli commentator on American politics. “With Donald Trump, it seems as if Israel is going to be somewhat freer to pursue the war the way it wants to.”

A Harris administration would struggle to find common ground with Israel on the terms of a postwar Gaza. Harris has said there should be no reduction to Gaza’s territory, while many in Israel’s right-wing government are calling to seize at least part of Gaza’s land after the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel last year.

Amit Segal, a senior right-wing commentator perceived as close to Netanyahu, said on Israeli Channel 12 television that if Trump is elected, Israel may “change the borders of the Gaza Strip as punishment for what happened on Oct. 7.”

The view of many Palestinians is that neither candidate would change their lives for the better.

Trump and Harris are “the same thing. Nothing will change. They’re both watching us die,” said Aladin Abu Haseira, speaking outside a U.N. warehouse in Gaza, where he was seeking flour rations.

Trump could back a West Bank annexation

Israel’s right-wing government could seek to annex the occupied West Bank if Trump is elected. Trump’s former ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, has advocated that approach. Harris would oppose annexation of land Palestinians want for an independent state.

Neither candidate would be expected to invest the capital to solve the core issues of the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said Ibrahim Dalalsha, a Palestinian political analyst from the Ramallah-based Horizon Center think tank.

Harris would pursue a “smarter conflict management kind of policy. But I don’t expect it to be a strategic intervention to resolve the conflict,” said Dalalsha, who previously served as a political adviser for the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem. “If Palestinians and Israelis do not really make a headway on it, it’s very difficult to imagine that there will be a U.S. administration that would come to fix things for both sides.”

Building a case to attack Iran’s nuclear program

Iran is one front where the identity of the next president could matter most.

After Israel’s bombing of Iran’s air defenses last month, there is a debate in Israel on whether it should bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities — a military task that would need U.S. support.

“Halting the nuclear program has been — and remains — our chief concern,” Netanyhau said this past week. “I have not taken, we have not taken and we will not take, our eyes off this objective.”

Netanyahu sees a decisive victory over Iranian threats to Israel to be the “story of his life” and an opportunity to leave a lasting legacy as an Israeli statesman, said Shtrauchler, Netanyahu’s former campaign adviser.

“I think that he sees more opportunities with Trump to do it,” said Shtrauchler. It “doesn’t mean that he would not do it at all with Harris. He knows how to work with leaders. He will try to find the solution with both of them.”

Anas Baba contributed reporting from Gaza, and Itay Stern contributed reporting from Tel Aviv, Israel.