South Jersey’s influence: Why it matters in the 2025 New Jersey governor’s race

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The 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election was not supposed to be that close.

A week before the general election, polling consistently showed Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy with a solid lead over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli.

On Election Day, Ciattarelli nearly pulled off an upset. But, Murphy managed to squeak through with 3% more votes in a low-turnout election, becoming the first Democrat since 1977 to win a second term.

In 2025, with Ciattarelli attempting his third run for governor, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney hoping his home base will propel him to the Democratic nomination, South Jersey is no longer a pit stop on the campaign trail. In fact, it could be the key to winning the general election.

Ciattarelli’s 2021 run stirred up Republican excitement

Political analysts credit a surge of voters in Republican-leaning counties for helping Ciattarelli get close to victory, particularly in South Jersey. The Republican was able to flip three counties that went for Murphy in 2017: Atlantic, Cumberland and Gloucester counties.

Four years ago, as he was doing a campaign stop at the New Italy American Society in Vineland, Cumberland County, Ciattarelli told the audience “no gubernatorial candidate has spent more time in South Jersey” than him. Vineland Mayor Anthony Fanucci said Ciattarelli has continued to visit the region since his last gubernatorial run.

“Jack has a special place in people’s hearts down here, because he’s paid more attention than anyone that I can remember in my history of being not just an elected official, but living in New Jersey,” he said.

Fanucci said he supported Ciattarelli in 2021 and is “gladly” endorsing him again this year. He said the former assemblyman took time to familiarize himself with issues of importance to South Jersey, such as tourism, agriculture, infrastructure and economic development, as well as many others.

“I know he won’t forget the south, let alone anywhere else in the state,” Fanucci added.

Before Ciattarelli, the last time the Rev. Benjamin Ocasio Sr. remembered a gubernatorial candidate visiting Vineland was when former Gov. Chris Christie was running for a second term in 2013. He feels throughout the years that other candidates have “forgotten that there is a South Jersey.”

Ocasio, pastor of the Rock of Salvation Church in Vineland, said he also saw Republican candidate Bill Spadea this year. But he would like to see statewide leaders visit the area more often, though understands their schedules being set in advance.

“Obviously, I get to see my mayor, and I get to see the city council, and they do try to pop in to different affairs,” he said.

Democrats in South Jersey remember Steve Sweeney

Former Senate President Steve Sweeney is the only gubernatorial candidate from South Jersey. With the exception of Cape May County, he has swept endorsements from Democratic committees across South Jersey.

Whether it gives Sweeney an advantage is “the $64 question,” according to Creed Pogue, a longtime active Democrat in Atlantic County. Since the abolishment of the county line ballot, candidates will be organized by the office they are running for and not whether they have the party backing.

Pogue points out that a candidate’s placement on the ballot will vary by county based on how their name is drawn by the clerk.

“For us here in Atlantic, [Jersey City Mayor Steven] Fulop was the first drawn. In Camden, and Cape May, it was [former Montclair Mayor and former New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller,] and I’m sure that there was no NJEA influence because it’s the Republican county clerk in Cape May that does the drawing,” he said. “So it comes to what the individual county parties and the campaigns themselves wind up doing, which is going to be a major part of how all this goes.”

Still, South Jersey Democrats are “very much” behind Sweeney, according to Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. He noted that the region has not had a contender for governor since Jim Florio.

“That’s a matter of pride to South Jersey Democrats,” he said. “I’m not saying that that’s what the larger electorate feels, but certainly among South Jersey Democrats, there’s a lot of feeling of they want him to succeed.”

Sweeney has been placing near the bottom of opinion polls. Rasmussen said he and other observers have been discussing the 1981 gubernatorial election, which has a lot of similarities with the current season. There were no county line ballots and it was the first year of public financing for gubernatorial campaigns.

“There were a lot of candidates who jumped into that race,” he said. “You had the mayor of Jersey City in that race. The mayor of Newark was in that race. Two of the members of Congress were in that race. Sound familiar?”

Florio, in his second attempt for governor, was among the crowded field. Rasmussen said his strategy was to over-perform in the south and have many North Jersey candidates split the vote in that region.

“Florio won that nomination, and he went on to lose the race, but by the very smallest margin that we’ve ever seen,” he added, noting Florio lost to Republican Tom Kean Sr. by nearly 1,800 votes. “Sweeney is looking for a similar strategy.”

Candidates need to turn south on path to Drumthwacket

Rasmussen said neither major political party is taking South Jersey for granted. He said Ciattarelli, on the Republican side, is relying on South Jersey to be in his corner. Ciattarelli said as much during his 2021 campaign stop in Vineland.

“South Jersey is critically important to delivering a win,” he said then.

If Sweeney wins the Democratic nomination, it will be because of the region, Rassmussen said. But if he is not successful, Rasmussen suggests that the nominee reaches out to Sweeney.

“If I were the nominee and I were not named Steve Sweeney, I’d be making a beeline the day after the primary,” he said. “That’s fertile territory.”

Ocasio said if candidates have the opportunity, they should come down to South Jersey. He has invited candidates to visit his church in the past but notes he does not endorse anyone.

“The door is open to whatever party comes in. And guess what, I pray for both parties,” he said.