Due diligence: Would Shapiro help Harris win Pa. like Democrats hope? Let’s look at the numbers

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Whenever I ask politicians around the state their thoughts on Josh Shapiro, they invariably speak of the governor with a bit of awe. This includes Democrats, who are more likely to use words like “talented,” and Republicans who prefer words like “shrewd.”

Shapiro’s popularity in Pennsylvania may not necessarily secure a win in November, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt, and Shapiro’s crossover appeal and reputation for “getting things done” might put the Democrats over the line.

Here’s what we know:

Josh Shapiro has been called Pennsylvania’s most popular governor — ever, or at least since “favorability” has been tracked. One recent poll shows that 61% of voters in the state approve of the job he is doing as governor. Another poll breaks that down and reveals 77% of Democrats, 42% of Republicans and 39% of independent voters have positive opinions about the governor’s job performance.

Meanwhile, 40% of Pennsylvania voters overall support Harris picking Shapiro as her running mate, a higher number than any of his competitors enjoy in their respective states. (We’re going to assume that’s not a “shrewd” strategy to get him out of Harrisburg.) And, according to a new Bloomberg-Morning Consult poll, Shapiro also boasts a higher favorability across the swing states (29%) than any of the other discussed picks, except for Pete Buttigieg (31%), who is not in the running, apparently.

That’s great and all, but does that mean more people in Pennsylvania would come out or vote for Harris because of the second name on the ballot? Wouldn’t you know it, there’s a book about that, “Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections.”

In their book, political science professors Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko determined that picking a running mate from a key voting bloc probably won’t make a difference with that voting bloc. For example, picking a woman will probably not get you many more votes from women — and picking a popular governor from a certain state will probably not win you many more votes from that state.

But, if 2024 is anything like 2020 or 2016, the margins will only be around 1% and it won’t take “that many more votes” to make a difference here.

“That is a big deal in a closely contested election,” says Dr. John Kennedy, a West Chester University professor of Political Science. “We’re not going to see suddenly Pennsylvania flip so that it’s no longer a battleground but if it does make just even a slight difference, that could be the difference between victory and defeat, not just for Pennsylvania before the entire election.”

The reality is that if you are a Democrat, you would probably already be voting for Harris. So where would those extra votes come from? Former U.S. Congressman Charlie Dent says that some of those votes would probably come from moderate Republicans who don’t like Trump but aren’t crazy about Harris either.

“At this point, if I were advising Harris, I’d say she needs to be ruthlessly pragmatic and do what she must to win Pennsylvania,” Dent told me. “Shapiro clearly helps her in that regard.”

According to Devine and Kopko, the running mate with the best chances of having a positive impact on the election would be an experienced, well-qualified running mate who will make the presidential candidate look better to voters.

Kennedy agrees with that, saying that the primary goal is to “do no harm” to the campaign, pointing to Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin as examples who damaged the chances of their tickets. He adds that Shapiro meets that bar and then some, given his abilities.

“I think if Gov. Shapiro was governor of one of the other states, he still would be viewed as a rising star and a contender,” he says. “Being the governor of Pennsylvania, certainly as a whole different dimension to his potential vote-getting ability.”