Pa. will help determine control of the U.S. House in the 2026 election. Here’s what to know

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With control of the U.S. House again expected to come down to a razor-thin margin next year, several congressional districts in Pennsylvania are emerging as some of the nation’s most competitive. As a result, control of the U.S. House may once again run through Pennsylvania.

Democrats have identified four districts they believe they can flip next year in Pennsylvania, more than any state: the 1st congressional district representing Bucks County; the 7th in the Lehigh Valley; the 8th in the Scranton area; and the 10th representing Harrisburg and York.

Three major, nonpartisan election forecasters — The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections have placed PA-7 and PA-10 among the most competitive House seats nationwide. PA-8 is commonly rated as “lean” or “tilt” Republican across the three major forecasters. And PA-1 remains “likely” Republican, but analysts say the district could become vulnerable under the right conditions.

A western Pennsylvania seat, the 17th, representing Pittsburgh suburbs, appears on the outer edges of the competitive map, rated likely to remain in Democratic hands but giving Republicans the best shot at their own pickup in the state.

Brian Fitzpatrick: The ‘moderate’

In the northern Philadelphia suburbs, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is again preparing for a tough re-election fight in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, which includes all of Bucks County and part of Montgomery County. Fitzpatrick, a former special assistant U.S. attorney and FBI agent, first ran for Congress in 2016, replacing his brother Mike Fitzpatrick, who held the seat for four terms.

In 2018, the self-described moderate eked out a re-election victory despite being outraised and outspent 4 to 1. In 2020, he was one of only nine House Republicans to win a district carried by President Joe Biden. He went on to win by more than 10 points in 2024 in a district that Trump only narrowly won.

In the early years when Fitzpatrick represented the area, Democrats gained a majority advantage and a majority on the Bucks County Board of Commissioners, ending 40 years of Republican control. Republicans have since reclaimed a voter advantage, but in November, a high off-year election turnout led to a “blue wave” that saw Democrats win more local seats.

The Cook Political Report currently rates the seat “likely Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball and other prognosticators also see Fitzpatrick favored but not entirely safe.

Democrats appear to believe that the 2025 off-year elections show that dissatisfaction with Republican leadership in Washington is giving them a greater edge and that fights over the economy, abortion and “attacks on democracy” will help flip the seat. Several candidates have already stepped forward, including Bucks County Commission Chair Bob Harvie, Delaware Valley University professor Tracy Hunt, eyewear company manager Robert Strickler and attorney Lucia Dora Simonelli.

Ryan Mackenzie: The toss-up

The Lehigh Valley-based 7th District — encompassing Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties — is widely seen as one of the purest swing seats in the country. Republican Ryan Mackenzie flipped the seat in 2024 with just over 50% of the vote, ousting Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, who served two terms.

Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate PA-7 a “toss-up.” The combination of a freshman Republican incumbent, a closely divided partisan history and a relatively inexpensive media market has made the Lehigh Valley a top target for both parties.

Mackenzie faces no serious Republican opposition so far, but the Democratic field is crowded. According to Ballotpedia and state election filings, declared Democratic contenders include former state Rep. Bob Brooks, Ryan Crosswell, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, former PPL executive Carol Obando-Derstine and Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley.

Fundraising reports show all six PA-7 candidates together raised more than $1.5 million in a recent quarter, much of it from outside the region, suggesting how vulnerable Democrats believe Mackenzie to be — and how much attention voters there can expect in the coming year.

Rob Bresnahan: The stock trader

Further north and west, Pennsylvania’s 8th District — anchored in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre region and the Poconos — is another GOP pickup from 2024 that Democrats are trying to claw back. Republican Rob Bresnahan, a businessman with a moderate image, flipped the longtime Democratic seat last cycle with just under 51% of the vote.

Cook lists PA-8 as “lean Republican,” while Inside Elections calls it “tilt Republican,” reflecting a slight GOP advantage. The district itself leans right — Donald Trump carried it by nearly double digits in 2024 — but Democrats see an opening given recent criticism over stock trading Bresnahan engaged in as a member of Congress with access to insider information.

Their preferred recruit is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, who launched a campaign this fall and immediately positioned herself as a watchdog on ethics, criticizing Bresnahan over the trading. Another Democrat, Francis McHale, an attorney who served in the state Department of Labor and Industry, has also entered the race.

Scott Perry and Republicans Against Perry

Perhaps no Pennsylvania race is drawing more national attention than the 10th District, centered on Harrisburg, much of Dauphin County, parts of Cumberland County and the northern half of York County.

Republican Rep. Scott Perry, a former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, won re-election in 2024 by just over a point. Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections now rate PA-10 a “toss-up,” with some analysts describing it as one of the most vulnerable GOP seats in the country heading into 2026.

Democrats already have their preferred candidate in Janelle Stelson, the former TV news anchor who ran against Perry last time and is running again, having lost by about 1%. She is expected to be the best-known Democrat in a large primary field, and already received an endorsement from Gov. Josh Shapiro.

Perry is also facing dissent inside his own party. Last year, a group formed Republicans Against Perry and criticized the incumbent for his right-wing views that RAP says do not represent the district. That effort may have helped Stelson to come within a point of winning. Now, Perry has primary competition. Karen Dalton, a former staff attorney for Republicans in the state House, has launched a primary challenge, joined by Joshua Hall, who was sentenced to prison for threatening the life of U.S. Rep. Eric Swallwell.

Pennsylvania will hold primary elections May 19, for which Pennsylvania voters have until May 4 to register, if necessary. The general election will be held Nov. 3.