Tropical update: it’s warming up

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four areas of disturbance in the Atlantic Basin, according to the center’s 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook.

While the system near Mexico has a 100 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours, there is no threat here, and the remaining three areas of disturbances have a low chance of reaching tropical cyclone status during the same period, the Tropical Weather Outlook advises.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 0 percent chance of tropical development for the disturbance to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, as it will continue to encounter “unfavorable environmental conditions.” 

However, within the next five days, the disturbance near the Dominican Republic (the remnants of Gabrielle) has a 40% chance of tropical development, and an Air Force Reserve “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft was en route to investigate this afternoon.

Lastly, forecasters expect a disturbance to emerge off the African coast in the next few days, giving it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September, and 80 percent of named storms between 1981 and 2010 have formed between August and October, according to a report on The Weather Channel, which had previously forecasted eight hurricanes for the current season.

In fact, on average, August 10 is when the first Atlantic hurricane forms, and in the five seasons without a hurricane through August since 1960 (1967, 1984, 1988, 2001, and 2002), multiple hurricanes developed later in the season, the report states.

Stay tuned.