Storm becoming more likely for Thursday, but precipitation amounts and types uncertain

There is growing confidence that a storm will impact the New Jersey region on Thursday, but forecasters say that low confidence regarding the amounts and types of precipitation remains. 

“The deterministic and ensemble model guidance since last night has certainly trended towards a large, and potentially long duration, winter nor’easter affecting much of the Northeast US,” said New York Metro Weather meteorologist John Homenuk. “But it will still be several more model cycles before we can pin down the specifics with any confidence.”

Forecasters say that the storm’s track will determine temperatures, which in turn will dictate where precipitation will be frozen or liquid. 

The NWS Mount Holly office offered a possible outcome in its morning forecast discussion:

“It looks like the southern half/third of the area could get enough of a warm push to present a rain/snow mix or even full change over to rain during the day as the storm is at its closest. Northern areas should stay cold enough for all snow, or a wintry mix possibly if a low-level warm tongue pushes in. As the storm pulls to the northwest, cold air will filter back in and likely change everyone back to all snow by Thursday evening.”

Forecasters expect the storm to wind down overnight Thursday, ending completely by mid-morning Friday.

But one thing is much more certain: bitterly cold temperatures and increasing winds for Friday into Saturday, forecasters note.