A new poll shows incumbent Democrat John Adler with a sturdy lead over Republican challenger Jon Runyan in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District. But the race may be tighter than it appears.
The latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows that among all registered voters Adler leads Runyan by six percentage points, 31 to 25.
But among voters paying close attention to the campaign, Runyan takes a one percentage point lead.
Poll director David Redlawsk says this result is significant in an off-year election when voter turnout is typically low.
“If the election were 2008 style, high turnout, Adler would look in pretty good shape. More likely it’ll be a typical off-year turnout in which case the people that are paying the most attention are the ones most likely to show up. And Runyan’s making it a real race in that case.”
Redlawk expects the race to stay tight through the November election, but says Adler’s sizable war chest will be a big obstacle for Runyan.
Poll results came from responses from 400 registered, 3rd District voters during the first week of August.