Long duration coastal storm to deliver days of raw weather

Keep those galoshes handy. 

We’re in for days of raw weather, with occasional periods of precipitation, forecasters say.

Minor tidal flooding and pockets of moderate tidal flooding — especially in extreme southern areas, including the lower Delaware Bay — will continue for multiple high tide cycles.

 

As the nor’easter still positioned off North Carolina ever so slowly pushes north, periods of rain will continue through the weekend as energy spins in off the ocean. Forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly expect one to two inches of rainfall Thursday.  

If you live on the coast, you will see the most impacts from the system, but to be crystal clear: this is not a particularly strong coastal storm, nor will it deliver impacts similar to Irene or Sandy.

Let’s break it down.

Coastal flooding

Minor coastal flooding is expected Thursday during the high tide cycle in all coastal tidal areas from Atlantic County to the north. Moderate tidal flooding is expected in Cumberland and Cape May counties as well as the lower Delaware Bay.

High tide at the oceanfront occurs between noon and 1:30 p.m. Thursday, while the back bays and Delaware Bay experience high tide later than the oceanfront.

The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Warning for Cumberland and Cape May counties as well as the lower Delaware Bay until 5 p.m. today.

“Numerous roadways will flood and minor to moderate property damage is possible. The tides and wave action will result in moderate beach erosion. Heavy rain may also fall around the time of high tide adding to the increase in water levels. A majority of the moderate flooding will take place in and along the Delaware Bay,” the Coastal Flood Warning states. 

The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for all tidal areas in Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic counties from 11 a.m. Thursday until 5 p.m. Friday, although with the coastal storm expected to linger off the coast, minor flooding may be an issue through the weekend.

“Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected this afternoon, aided in part by periods of wind driven heavy rain. Minor coastal flooding and high surf are also expected during the high tide cycle Friday afternoon. Additional minor coastal flooding is possible at the times of high tide Saturday and Sunday afternoon,” the Coastal Flood Advisory states. 

Rain

Periods of rain are expected, although National Weather Service does not envision any flooding concerns other than urban and poor drainage flooding. 

The latest guidance from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center indicates that about four inches of rain could fall through Sunday at the shore. 

Rainfall amounts become slightly progressively lower in areas north and west — away from the ocean — but the forecast indicates that two to three inches of rain could fall during the same period in northwest New Jersey. 

Winds

The closer you are to the coast, the windier it will be.

The National Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning for coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Cape May until 6 p.m. Thursday. Seas are expected to run about 8 to 12 feet, gradually subsiding Friday through the the weekend.

On the beaches, there will be sustained northeast winds at 25 to 35 miles per hour, with gusts around 45 miles per hour. Winds will be progressively lighter each mile away from the coast.

Timing

Forecasting model guidance suggests that while steady rain will end later in the day on Saturday, the continuing onshore flow may keep the New Jersey area, especially along the coast, cool, dark, and damp all weekend and perhaps into early next week. Stay tuned as the forecast evolves.

High temperatures Wednesday through Sunday will be in the middle to upper 60s.