Why AP hasn’t called Pa.’s U.S. Senate race between Bob Casey and David McCormick
The roughly half of a percentage point margin between the candidates also qualifies the race for an automatic recount.
Election workers process mail-in ballots for the 2024 General Election at the Chester County, Pa., administrative offices, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in West Chester, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Pennsylvania’s Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick is still too early to call.
McCormick has a roughly 31,000-vote lead, which has been dwindling as outstanding votes continue to be counted. The roughly half-percentage-point margin between the candidates also qualifies the race for an automatic recount.
McCormick overtook Casey with about 80% of the estimated votes counted just before midnight on Tuesday. Casey initially had a lead over McCormick when just about 40% of the estimated votes had been counted, propelled in part by mailed ballots that have historically favored Democrats. McCormick was doing better in votes cast on Election Day.
Candidates
Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) and three others
Winner
Too early to call.
Poll closing time
8 p.m. ET Tuesday
About the race
Casey hails from a well-known political family in the state. The son of a popular two-term governor, he served in statewide elected office as auditor general and treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006. McCormick is a West Point grad, Army veteran and former investment firm CEO who lost the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz in 2022. Sharp exchanges have punctuated the contest.
McCormick has accused Casey of being weak and a career politician. Casey called McCormick a wealthy, carpetbagging ex-hedge fund CEO. Pennsylvania Democrats have found success against GOP rivals in the recent Senate and governor’s races.
John Fetterman beat Oz in 2022 by 5 points, and Gov. Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano handily that year as well, becoming the first governor to be elected to succeed a member of his party since 1966.
Why AP hasn’t called the race
Casey still has a narrow path to victory.
Explaining the election
- Voter fraud: Yes, it happens. But it’s rare, and election offices have safeguards to catch it
- Hand-counting votes: Election conspiracy theories fueled a push to do so, but the practice is risky and slow
- Calling races: If the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner? Here’s what to know
- The media’s role: News media don’t run elections. Here’s why they call the winners
Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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Part of the series
Casey and McCormick square off in Pennsylvania race that could help Republicans pad their majority
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2 months ago
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David McCormick has talked about possibly running for so long now that his stalling has prompted head-scratching in some quarters.
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