Tropical update: Quiet in the tropics, but it’s still early

While there have been six named tropical storms at modest intensity during the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, none have strengthened to hurricane status, so does this mean that we’re off the hook?

No. 

The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September, and 80 percent of named storms between 1981 and 2010 have formed between August and October, according to a report on The Weather Channel (TWC), which had previously forecasted eight hurricanes for the current season. 

In fact, on average, August 10 is when the first Atlantic hurricane forms, and in the five seasons without a hurricane through August since 1960 (1967, 1984, 1988, 2001, and 2002), multiple hurricanes developed later in the season, the report states.

From the report: 

We’re headed into the peak of the hurricane season, the time during which vertical wind shear is at a minimum and instability, or the ability of the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms, is maximized.

An “average” Atlantic hurricane season (1981-2010) would still deliver the following after Aug. 31:

7 more named storms

4 hurricanes

3 major hurricanes

The primary reason why this season has been quiet is because the disturbances coming off Africa have been encountering “unusually dry” air in the Atlantic and “basically collapsing,” said The Weather Channel’s Carl Parker in a video published on the channel’s website. 

With Tropical Depression Fernand now moving through Mexico, the Atlantic basin is once again quiet, but don’t panic over the prospect of hurricanes developing.

Just be prepared and monitor Jersey Shore Hurricane News.