The latest: There’s a danger of life-threatening inundation, NHC says

    A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Jersey Shore.

    According to the National Weather Service, a Tropical Storm Warning means that “sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) are possible within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.”

    The latest National Hurricane Center forecast as of 11 a.m. today shows Hermine currently moving toward the east-northeast near 15 miles per hour, packing maximum sustained winds near 65 miles per hour.

    The forecast calls for a turn toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed by tonight, followed by a slow northward motion through early Monday.

    The system will meander offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday night and early Monday, when it is expected to regain hurricane strength as it wobbles offshore from New Jersey through Tuesday. 

    “A dangerous storm surge is expected along the coast from Virgina to New Jersey,” the latest public bulletin from the National Hurricane Center advises. 

    A twitter posting from the National Hurricane Center advises of “a danger of life-threatening inundation” along the entire Jersey Shore within 36 hours. 

    “Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water,” it continued. 

    Here are the current hazards according to the latest National Weather Service briefing (you can read the full document here): 

    Coastal flooding/beach erosion: High Confidence.

    Areas of minor flooding beginning with the Saturday evening high tide, then minor to moderate flooding Sunday morning. Widespread moderate to major flooding is now expected with the Sunday evening high tide and the Monday morning high tide, especially from Atlantic City south to coastal Delaware, when the storm is expected to make its closest approach to the area. Coastal flooding may continue into Tuesday. Given multiple rounds of tidal flooding, water in the back bays will have a hard time draining between tidal cycles which should lead to prolonged and significant flooding in these locations. Additionally, there could be tidal flooding into the upper portions of Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, including Philadelphia. The combination of higher than normal tides and heavy rain will cause flooding of streets and low lying places in the coastal areas this weekend. Be careful where you park your car. Significant beach erosion is also expected due to large wave action and this prolonged event.

    Strong Wind: Moderate confidence.

    Tropical storm force winds, sustained wind of 39 mph or greater, with higher gusts for at least the coastal counties (areas under the warning). Strongest winds should occur Sunday into Monday.

    Heavy Rain: Moderate Confidence.

    A sharp western cutoff of the heavy rain is expected, and this will be dependent on the exact track. Areas with the highest risk for heavy rain are Delmarva and eastern New Jersey. The heaviest rain should occur Sunday into Monday, with up to 6 inches or more near the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast. The primary flooding hazard will be street and flash flooding. The recent dry weather will lessen but not eliminate the risk of river and stream flooding.

    Rip Current Risk: High Confidence.

    Moderate to high risk through at least Labor Day, and may continue Tuesday . Beach goers should only enter the water if lifeguards are present, and as conditions worsen are urged to stay out of the water. High and dangerous surf is expected.

    Stay tuned for Jersey Shore Hurricane News for updates. 

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