Analyst sees North Jersey loss in congressional redistricting

As a special commission redraws New Jersey’s congressional districts, one of the state’s members of the House of Representatives soon will be out of a job.

New Jersey will lose one of its 13 House seats because the state’s population hasn’t grown as much as some other parts of the nation over the last 10 years.

Monmouth University political analyst Patrick Murray expects the map that’s selected is likely to have a “fair fight” district that does not combine Congressmen from the same party.

“Probably the most likely outcome is one that pits Scott Garrett, the Republican in the 5th, against Steve Rothman, who’s the Democrat in the 9th up in North Jersey,” Murray said. “That’s the place that has lost the most population relative to the rest of the state.”

Murray said it’s unclear whether the redistricting will give one of the political parties an advantage. He says every congressional district in the state will see some changes as boundaries are adjusted to include an average population of about 730,000.