Disturbance northeast of the Bahamas under observation

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring an area of cloudiness and showers northeast of the Bahamas. 

Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for tropical or subtropical development by Friday a National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook advises. 

“The models have widely differing ideas on how much wind shear might be present, so it is too early to say if this weekend’s system is a legitimate threat to develop into a tropical depression,” writes Weather Underground forecaster Dr. Jeff Masters in a blog post. 

The National Hurricane Center advises that the disturbed weather is expected to “move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United States over the weekend.”

Masters says models are divergent with respect to the potential land threats, ranging from northern Florida to North Carolina. 

“Should the storm over-achieve and become a tropical storm, it would be named Bonnie,” he wrote. 

The 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. The season began before the official date with the formation of Hurricane Alex in January. The upcoming names include Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, and Fiona.

A report issued by Colorado State University in April anticipates 12 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, or cyclones that reach Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which is “near average” activity. 

The season peaks in September, and 80 percent of named storms between 1981 and 2010 have formed between August and October, according to The Weather Channel.