NewsWorks Tonight host Dave Heller sits down for his weekly conversation with Gallup’s Frank Newport to talk about trends in U.S. opinion.
This week we examine polling, and more specifically the recent presidential debate.
The data are clear that debate watchers say that Clinton won Monday night’s debate at Hofstra University. This is based on Gallup’s new poll using accepted random sampling techniques, and based on other polls using similar accepted methodologies.
Trump (and others) have been citing non-scientific opt-in polls on various media outlets. These are basically worthless — and do a real disservice to those attempting to accurately project to American public opinion.
Clinton won big among Democrats and Independents, and just about half of Republicans were willing to say that Trump won the debate.
Still, we don’t see a major shift in the images of the two candidates in the three days since the debate. Clinton maintains a somewhat more favorable image, in the low 40 percent range, compared to Trump’s low 30 percent range — but no signs of a major shift.
A review of previous Gallup post-debate polling going back to Nixon-Kennedy shows that the winner of the first debate is not necessarily going to win the second and third debates. Plus, the winner of the first debate in a number of instances went on to lose the election.