A cold front associated with a strong low pressure system will sweep through the region tonight, potentially delivering severe thunderstorms, forecasters say.
The main threat will be during the evening hours, ending by around midnight as the cold front moves offshore, according to the National Weather Service.
The short-range High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecasting model indicates a squall line approaching New Jersey from the west around sunset.
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center places the Shore in the “slight” risk category for severe thunderstorms, implying that scattered severe storms that are “short-lived and/or not widespread” are possible.
Damaging winds are possible, with southerly gusts up to 50 miles per hour, according to a National Weather Service Wind Advisory.
“The strongest winds should occur near bands of heavy showers or thunderstorms, most likely between 9 p.m. and midnight,” the advisory states.
While damaging wind is the primary threat, the Storm Prediction Center forecasts a 5% chance of a tornado for most of the Shore (2% in Monmouth County) and a 15% chance of hail.