Forecasters expect above normal temperatures during final days of September into early October

    Ready for a long stretch of those cool fall days?

    You’ll just have to keep waiting, forecasters say.

    The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts between a 70 and 80 percent chance of above normal temperatures in New Jersey between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2. A similar chance continues through Oct. 6.

    In Toms River, the normal temperature for the last few days in September is around 72 degrees, according to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist. During the first five days of October, it’s around 70 degrees, dropping about one degree for each successive five day period.

    The current NOAA forecast for Toms River calls for temperatures in the middle 70s to close out the week, rising to 77 degrees by next Monday, which is the beginning of the NWS outlook period. 

    Precipitation may also be below normal, with the six to 10 day outlook calling for a 33 to 40 chance of below average conditions, rising to between a 40 and 50 percent chance through 14 days. 

    According to forecasters, it’s due to the jet stream keeping a cooler air mass and storm systems in Canada along with a stretch of high pressure dominance. 

    With the above average temperature outlook, will it be what is commonly known as an Indian Summer?

    Not quite. 

    A National Weather Service historian writes that the most popular definition is as follows:

    It is an abnormally warm and dry weather period, varying in length, that comes in the autumn time of the year, usually in October or November, and only after the first killing frost/freeze. There may be several occurrences of Indian Summer in a fall season or none at all.

    Since the Jersey Shore typically does not experience a frost until late October, we won’t experience an Indian Summer — at least not yet. 

    But whatever you call it, it’ll be warm to begin October.

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