The tropics are slowly beginning to wake up after a relatively quiet three months with no hurricanes.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two areas in the Atlantic basin for potential tropical cyclone development.
The first area is about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, with a 10% chance of development within the next 48 hours, and the second area, just off the coast of Africa, has a 30% chance of development within the same period.
Forecast models indicate that the area of disturbance near Africa will likely turn northward after perhaps a brush with the Cape Verde Islands, avoiding a westerly track toward the Caribbean region.
But what about the remainder of the season?
In a report on Down the Shore from earlier this week, I noted that even though the current hurricane season, which stretches from June 1 until November 30, has only generated six named tropical storms at modest intensity, that doesn’t mean that the remainder of the season will be quiet.
In fact, 80 percent of named storms between 1981 and 2010 have formed between August and October, and in the five seasons without a hurricane through August since 1960 (1967, 1984, 1988, 2001, and 2002), multiple hurricanes developed later in the season, according to a report on The Weather Channel.
So the moral of the story is simply this: stay tuned.