Democrats declare victory in razor-close Butler County state House special election

This story originally appeared on WESA.

Democrats have declared victory in a Butler County special election Tuesday, boasting of a notable — if highly symbolic — win in a state House district long held by Republicans.

While the race remained too close to call, unofficial vote tallies showed Brandon Dukes, a loan administrator, narrowly leading Republican Scott Timko, a private pilot, by a margin of less than 100 votes in a race where more than 16,800 voters cast ballots. Just under one-third of voters did so in the district, which includes Adams Township, Cranberry, Evans City, Harmony, Seven Fields and Zelienople.

“We want to count every vote, every provisional, every overseas voter, but based on these results, I have nothing but gratitude for the support of my friends, family, staff and volunteers who have supported me through this entire journey,” Dukes said in a statement issued at 10:45 p.m. Tuesday.

In Harrisburg, he said, “We can now do so much more in the State House to deliver real wins for working families. I plan to get to work on day one to make our roads like [state Route] 228 safer and more convenient, to better fund our children’s schools, to make healthcare more affordable, and to bring costs down across the board for our community here in Butler County.”

Timko did not immediately return a call from WESA after Dukes issued his statement. Neither did Butler County Republicans. But conservative political activist Scott Presler lamented on X, formerly Twitter, that “[i]t appears Republicans will lose the special election in Butler County, PA, by 88 votes.”

Democrats wasted no time performing a victory lap. In a statement issued by the state Democratic Party, Gov. Josh Shapiro celebrated the fact that President Donald Trump carried the 12th District seat two years ago by 18 points.

“Pennsylvanians are rising up and using their power to combat the chaos, cruelty, and corruption — and we’re not slowing down,” Shapiro said.

“Tonight’s result not only shows what can be accomplished when Democrats are willing to fight everywhere, but it sets the stage for this November’s midterm elections,” said Eugene DePasquale, who chairs the state Democratic Party. “Pennsylvanians across the political spectrum are sick and tired of Republicans’ chaotic, corrupt, and cost-raising agenda — and they’re ready to reject them at the polls and elect Democrats up and down the ballot in historic fashion.”

Tuesday’s election resulted from Republican Stephenie Scialabba’s resignation in April. (A statement at the time said she intended to focus on her family.)

And in some ways, the stakes for the race are low: The election won’t determine the majority in the House — Democrats will retain at least a one-seat edge even if Republicans win. And the winner will only serve for less than a dozen session days in Harrisburg after the results are certified.

Dukes and Timko, in fact, already have a rematch scheduled: They are also running against each other this November to hold the seat for a full two-year term that will start next year.

But partisans see the race as a potential sign of trends going into highly consequential elections this fall.

On paper, Republicans went into the race with a daunting registration advantage: The GOP outnumbers voters there by nearly two-to-one margins, according to figures compiled by the Department of State. But Democrats have seen gains in prosperous suburbs – they have made huge gains in North Hills communities just across the Allegheny County line from Cranberry – and been having luck in special elections particuiarly.

The 12th District is “indicative of a kind of a place where … there could be bigger swings against Republicans where they don’t win by similar percentages as they did in 2024,” said Democratic strategist J.J. Abbott. “And that in large part is because the president’s approval rating is really down everywhere, including in some of these more red areas.”

Polls have consistently shown Trump bleeding support since he took office in 2025. A recent Franklin & Marshall College poll showed that just 29% of Pennsylvania voters believe he is doing a “good” or “excellent” job: Two in three Republican voters say so.

And Abbot noted that Democrats have over-performed in special elections nationwide, including the Lancaster state Senate race in which James Malone took over the seat long held by the GOP.

“You’re seeing a lot of change … in different areas that are now picking up with more Democratic votes as they get denser and more diverse, and this district’s an example of that,” Abbott said, adding Cranberry still skews Republican in voter registration.

Butler County GOP chair Stacey Palmer remained optimistic going into Election Day, however. Republicans have held the district since the mid-1990s, and Palmer said they still have a homefield advantage.

“It’s been a lot of direct engagement with voters,” she said of the run-up to the election. “We did a bunch of festivals. There’s a lot of door knocking. That’s the name of the game.”

The winner will be campaigning as an incumbent in the Nov. 3 general election, which comes with an advantage, political observers note.

Dukes, who was endorsed last week by former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, recently lost a close race for Cranberry supervisor. Timko has run unsuccessfully in primaries for Congress in 2020 and this House seat 2022.