Coastal storm on Thursday? Current track is uncertain, forecasters say

A coastal low pressure system is expected to develop off the Carolina coast and potentially track into the New Jersey region Thursday, increasing chances of rain, gusty winds, and possibly minor coastal flooding, forecasters say.

A surface low pressure is expected to develop from Wednesday into Thursday, but global forecast models do not agree on the exact track as of late Tuesday morning, said John Homenuk, lead forecaster at New York Metro Weather.

“Newer forecast models have continued the trend of strengthening the storm, and tracking the center of low pressure very close to the Mid-Atlantic coast. With a slug of moisture surging northward near the coast, this would mean increasing potential for moderate to heavy rain in our area on Thursday,” he said.”

A high pressure to the north of New Jersey and a mid level pattern may suppress the system, Homenuk said, although the models are continuing to trend toward more of an impact in the New Jersey region, delivering a windy and rainy Thursday. 

“But, if the high pressure trends stronger, the storm will be forced to track southeast of the area, sparing us any heavy rain,” he said.

Additionally, the interaction between the strong high pressure system to the north and the developing storm system to the south “would create a strong onshore flow — with gusty winds and heavy rain near the coast,” the forecaster said.

Regardless of the system’s track, the Friday forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and high near 70 at the beaches, continuing straight through the weekend, according to NOAA.