Thunderstorms likely to develop Sunday ahead of a strong cold front might generate damaging winds and heavy rain, forecasters say.
According to a briefing from the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, the severe threat window is between the afternoon and evening hours, but heavy rain is also possible during the morning.
Damaging winds in excess of 60 miles per hour and heavy rain generating urban and poor drainage flooding are possible.
The service’s forecast discussion offers a technical explanation of Sunday’s possible severe weather.
“This continuing uncertainty on the amount of cloud cover will have large affect on if the atmosphere can destabilize enough for any strong to severe thunderstorms. The cold front will likely be enough of a focal mechanism for the formation of a linear convective system ahead of it,” the discussion notes.
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center places the vast majority of the state, including the Jersey Shore, in the “slight” risk category for severe thunderstorms, implying scattered severe storms that are “short-lived and/or not widespread” are possible.
The extreme southwestern portion of the state is within the “enhanced risk” category, meaning that numerous severe storms “that are more persistent and or widespread, with a few intense,” are possible.
A tornado and large hail cannot be ruled out, the briefing states.
“Outdoor venues occurring in Delmarva, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania on Sunday should pay close attention to the potential of strong damaging winds as well as urban and poor drainage flooding,” forecaster Joseph Miketta said in the briefing.