Today Rob Gleason, chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican party releases a new survey from a traditionally Republican pollster showing Mitt Romney within a point of President Obama, 48 to 47.
That cuts against the grain of most other recent polls, and the fact that both sides in the presidential campaign have stopped advertising in the keystone state. The ad buys may be the clearest indicator of where the campaigns see the race, because they can’t spin them – they’re either putting up serious money for TV time or they aren’t.
UPDATE: Gleason said at his morning conference call with reporters that Romney ads would soon be appearing in Pennsylvania.
And while the State Supreme Court’s decision on voter ID Tuesday isn’t definitive, it seems much less likely the new law will be in effect on November 6th, and that can’t be encouraging to Republicans. And lets’ face it, the video of Romney saying 47 percent of the country won’t support him because they’re freeloaders isn’t exactly helpful either.
Earlier this week, veteran Harrisburg reporter Pete DeCoursey had a fascinating note on Pennsylvania’s tilt toward the Obama column. He recalled the plan hatched by Republican legislative leaders earlier this year to alter the way Pennsylvania awards its electoral votes, abandoning the current winner-take-all rule and instead awarding the votes by results in Congressional districts.
That plan had some steam, but was opposed by the Republican national chairman and by Gleason, who today is pushing the idea that Pennsylvania is still winnable.
From DeCoursey’s Monday piece:
“If Gov. Mitt Romney loses the fall election by less than 14-20 electoral votes, Republican State Committee Chairman Rob Gleason and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus probably lost it for him.
Along with several Pennsylvania Republican congressmen, Gleason and Priebus quarterbacked the GOP power broker revolt that defeated Sen. Dominic Pileggi’s plan to award Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes by congressional district, not winner-takes all, as the state currently does.
As a practical matter, that would have turned Obama’s 21-0 victory here in 2008 in electoral college votes into an 11-10 virtual tie. Obama would have taken a one-vote lead from Pennsylvania, not a 21-vote lead.”
Interesting thought. Still, it ain’t over, and a lot can change in six weeks.