A cold front will sweep through New Jersey Thursday, delivering the chance of gusty thunderstorms, forecasters say.
In response, the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms.
“Damaging winds appear to be the main threat at this time,” a NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook advises. “Heavy rains will occur with the thunderstorms and may result in localized flooding, too.”
But there are a variety of factors that will dictate whether severe thunderstorms form, according to John Homenuk, lead forecaster at New York Metro Weather.
“This will ultimately depend on a few things, including the timing of the front itself, the amount of clouds which hang around in the area on Thursday morning and afternoon, and the wind direction/resulting surface temperatures,” he said. “Forecast models, as you may imagine, are up in arms in regards to the degree of destabilization.”
Due to atmospheric and marine conditions, “instability will be greater and more supportive of storms the farther west/southwest you are of New York City,” Homenuk said.