A disturbance in the middle Atlantic Ocean continues to strengthen, forecasters say.
As of Tuesday morning, the low pressure system, consisting of showers and thunderstorms, is located about 1600 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, said Dr. Richard Pasch, a Senior Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center, in the outlook.
“This system could develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” Pasch said.
“Water vapor satellite loops and the Saharan Air Layer analysis showed that 93L had more dry air to contend with than on Monday, with some tendrils of the dry Saharan Air Layer to the north encroaching into the circulation. Ocean temperatures have cooled since Monday, and are now marginal for development, about 27°C,” Masters wrote.
Dry air currently to the north of the disturbance may interfere with development later in the week, and wind shear may also disrupt formation, according to Masters, who noted that forecasting models differ with respect to ultimate strengthening.
By early next week, two major global forecasting models have the system taking more of a northwesterly track, according to Masters.
“This raises the odds that the strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be able to recurve 93L out to sea without the storm hitting the mainland U.S. coast,” he wrote.