Poll scenarios are poles apart in Pa. governor’s race

A flurry of polls on Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race show Republican incumbent Gov. Tom Corbett’s re-election bid is in trouble, though his campaign rushed to point to polls showing a tighter contest.

“Democratic candidate Tom Wolf is up by 30 points,” says one poll.

“Up by 11 points,” asserts another. “Nine points,” chimes in a third.

Or, according to a leaked internal poll, by just seven points.

Such have been the results of a slew of different polls, all with different methodologies, over two weeks.

The polls matter most to fundraisers — and people trying to change the perception of the horse race.

But political strategists say what matters more than publicized surveys are the internal polls being conducted by campaigns and their big donors — and those results may never come out.

Wilkes University political science professor Tom Baldino is among many political observers who think the race will tighten up.

“I suspect the gap will close a bit more regardless of which poll results you use, or which poll you refer to, by the time the election occurs,” he said. ” would be shocked if Wolf wins by 20 points.”

With just two months until the election, Baldino said he never discounts an incumbent.