Recent rainfall not enough to pull Philly region out of drought, climatologists say

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The Philadelphia region finally received significant rainfall last week following two months of record dryness that led to drought warnings in New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania.

The rain came as a relief in New Jersey, where firefighters have been battling an unseasonably high number of wildfires triggered by severe drought conditions.

Following last week’s rainfall, the state’s fire service lifted an open fire ban, and on Monday, Delaware’s state fire marshall followed suit.

However, the recent rainfall is not enough to make up the deficit, or pull the region out of drought conditions, said New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson.

“We need an inch of rain a week on average to keep things from getting worse, but we need more than that on occasion to really begin to dig in and reduce the deficit of 10 inches that’s gathered over the last three months,” he said.

The region faced record dry conditions in September and October, the likes of which have not been seen in more than a century.

Not only have the dry conditions increased the risk of wildfires, but the reduced rainfall has also caused water supplies to rescind in parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, prompting some water providers to urge residents to conserve their water at home.

Three-day precipitation totals last week ranged from as little as half an inch in Southern Delaware to up to three inches in northern New Jersey, which includes melted snow, according to the National Weather Service. There is a slight chance of rain Tuesday morning, followed by more significant rain on Thanksgiving Day into Friday, meteorologists say.

The region typically receives three to four inches of rain and melted snow per month during the winter.

Any amount of rain helps slow down the drought’s impacts, moisten the soil and reduce the risk of wildfires, said Delaware state climatologist Kevin Brinson.

“We definitely want to slow our descent,” he said. “We don’t want to have the drought continue to worsen and worsen.”

However, the rainfall is not enough to end the drought, Brinson said.

“I think we’re in a wait and see pattern,” he said. “We’ll continue to monitor the situation and hope for more rain.”

That being said, Brinson and Robinson said the drought can come to a close without making up the entire deficit.

“One storm doesn’t tell the story,” Robinson said. “We’re going to have to look down the road the next couple of weeks to see if we begin to re-establish a normal rainfall pattern or continue with this dry pattern.”