COVID case counts continue creeping up in Philly
Cases of the coronavirus are continuing to rise across the city of Philadelphia, pushing the city into what Health Commissioner Thomas Farley described as “dangerous territory.”.
Last week, the city saw an average of 189 cases per day — a number likely to increase once the lagging lab results trickle in. The week prior saw an average of 184 cases per day. These averages are the highest they’ve been since mid-May.
While last week the increase was relatively isolated to the Northeast and areas of South Philadelphia, Farley said this week, positive test results were coming back from ZIP codes across the city. He said it appears that the virus is following the pattern of other respiratory viruses like the flu.
“These viruses tend to get more common throughout the fall and peak in January or February,” said Farley. “If COVID follows that pattern, we are going to be having a difficult time over the next three to four months.”
Farley attributed some of the rise to an increase in testing, but the percent of overall tests coming back positive is also rising: right now, 4.8% of tests are positive, compared to 2.8% in mid-July.
Farley said based on case investigations by contact tracers, it appeared people were contracting the virus from small gatherings: family dinners, weddings, bridal showers.
“Everyone is tired of this virus. Unfortunately, the virus is not tired of us,” said Farley. He recalled something Mayor Jim Kenney had said when the pandemic first arrived in the spring: “This is a virus that hunts humans, and the reality is, it’s still hunting.”
So far, the number of deaths in Philadelphia does not appear to be increasing, holding around 15 per week. An increase in deaths tends to lag behind an increase in positive test results, and Farley said he expects to see a rise.
The city is seeing an increase in cases at nursing homes and other congregate care settings. It has opened a “COVID relief center” for nursing homes that cannot safely isolate or care for patients who test positive for the coronavirus. The unit is on an unoccupied floor of a nursing home that is in active use. Farley would not disclose the facility’s identity, but said there is currently one patient there.
Of the roughly 50 schools providing some form of in-person learning in Philadelphia, Farley said the department of public health knows of roughly 44 sites where at least one infection has occurred. He said most of the instances were isolated cases, with no evidence of spread. In 26 instances, the department recommended a quarantine, which effectively prevented any spread. The only exception is at the Philadelphia Independent school, where 15 cases have been documented.
Farley said one worrisome source of infections could be from people returning to the office. 17% of people who tested positive that contact tracers spoke with reported eating lunch unmasked with a colleague at the office. He said everyone who could work from home should continue to do so.
Contact tracers have not seen an increase in the percentage of people who reported eating indoors at a restaurant, indicating that indoor dining may not be a driver of the spread at this time. Still, Farley reminded Philadelphians that indoor dining is a high risk activity.
As to whether or not the steady rise in cases will lead to increased restrictions, Farley said he hadn’t ruled it out, but also acknowledged that stricter rules may not do much good since the majority of transmissions seem to be occurring in households, where restrictions wouldn’t apply anyway. He said the answer is to remain vigilant, continue wearing masks even around family and friends, and socialize outside when possible, until we have a vaccine.