Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf is proposing a major overhaul of public school finance, aimed at addressing resource inequities, that would be backed by a significant increase to Pennsylvania’s personal income tax.
Wolf formally presented the $37.8 billion plan at a remote version of his annual budget address Wednesday, saying it is an effort to answer three questions: “What do people need to be able to build a brighter future here in Pennsylvania? What are the barriers that get in their way? And what can we do to help remove those barriers?”
The proposal, which he teased earlier in the week, is is winning him plaudits from many education advocates, but few friends in the GOP-controlled legislature.
Senate Republican leaders, who in recent years have generally made a show of finding at least some common ground after Wolf’s budget proposals, were blunt. The plan, they said, is “dead on arrival.”
Wolf wants to increase the commonwealth’s personal income tax from 3.07% to 4.49% in the next fiscal year — a hike he estimates will net the state around $4 billion over the next fiscal year, but says will include broad exemptions so the increase only affects the top third of earners.
About half of the new revenue would go to schools, and the rest would help fill in big, largely pandemic-induced budget gaps.
“We’re going to stop asking working families to pay the same tax rate my family does,” said Wolf, who ran a very successful business before being elected. “This isn’t about pitting the rich against the poor and the middle class, this is about asking folks who have already made it to shoulder a little more of the burden so that folks who haven’t made it yet have a better chance to do so.”
The governor has largely steered clear of proposing sales or income tax increases since his first budget cycle, in 2015, when he deadlocked with the GOP-controlled legislature and the two camps had a nine-month standoff before finally coming to an agreement devoid of broad taxes.
In the intervening years, Republicans haven’t softened to the idea.
“Raising taxes is not the answer to our problem,” House GOP spokesman Jason Gottesman said. “It’s a non-starter.”
Lawmakers haven’t increased Pennsylvania’s income tax since 2003. The commonwealth currently has one of the lowest rates in the country and is one of nine states that assesses a flat rate on all taxpayers — which means all earners have their income assessed at the same percentage.
That arrangement is explicitly guaranteed in the state constitution via a uniformity clause, which bars progressive tax structures that require higher earners to pay bigger portions of their income. And that clause is the reason why Wolf’s income tax proposal includes expanding an existing tax forgiveness credit in an attempt to give lower earners a break.
Wolf says the exemptions would make it so most Pennsylvanias would not see a higher tax bill.
Under the plan, single people would have their taxes completely forgiven if they make $15,000 or less per year. Married couples who make $30,000 or less would also be forgiven. Each dependent would add an additional $10,000 allowance to the salary calculations. As salaries go up, the level of forgiveness would go down.
A key salary under the plan would be $84,000. That’s the highest income level that a married couple with two children would be able to make without their personal income taxes rising.
Wolf presented the plan as a boon to low-income and working-class families, saying about 67% of Pennsylvanians would either have their taxes reduced or untouched. Republicans came to the opposite conclusion — Gottesman argued that $84,000 for a family of four is squarely middle class, as are even higher salaries.
“I don’t consider that to be the uber-rich who you often hear the left talking about needing to be taxed,” he said.
The median household income in Pennsylvania is about $63,000.
Democratic Appropriations Chair Matt Bradford, one of the legislative leaders charged with examining state revenue and spending, acknowledged that it will be difficult-to-impossible to pass any tax through the GOP-controlled House and Senate.
“Hope springs eternal,” he said.
The personal income tax increase wasn’t the only non-starter in Wolf’s proposal, in Gottesman’s estimation. Also unacceptable to Republican leaders are a slew of Wolf’s perennial proposals: legalizing and taxing adult-use cannabis, increasing Pennsylvania’s $7.25 an hour minimum wage, and a severance tax on the natural gas industry, among others.
“I think that this is the result of the governor not being able to come up with any original solutions to return Pennsylvania back to normal,” Gottesman said. “It shows just how much he’s not taking his responsibility … seriously.”
Republicans don’t have their own plan hammered out yet. Gottesman said they’re focused on getting vaccines out and reopening businesses, not finding new revenue. As an example of their approach, he pointed to efforts to disburse roughly a billion dollars in federal funds, and a bill that would task the National Guard with helping distribute the COVID-19 vaccine.
Bradford said his office has calculated that the revenue shortfall for the next fiscal year will be significant — somewhere between $2.5 and $3.5 billion — something Republicans don’t dispute.
Merely getting people back to work, he argued, won’t fix that.
“We would be foolish to not recognize the structural challenges that are in our budget, that in some cases frankly predate the pandemic,” Bradford said.
Rank-and-file Republicans were quick to echo legislative leaders in criticizing Wolf’s plan.
Representative Seth Grove (R-York), who chairs the House State Government Committee, said on Twitter that he thinks the governor’s strategy of expanding income tax exemptions to get around the uniformity clause is likely unconstitutional. He called the entire proposal a “fiction budget.”
But Wolf — who in recent years has presented fairly moderate budget proposals that have ruffled Republican feathers much less — anticipated the criticism and dismissed it.
“I know that folks on the other side of the aisle are going to point to this budget and tell you all the things it does wrong or all of the things they don’t like,” he said. “But you know what? We’re not in the chamber today … So I’m not talking to them. I’m talking to the people of Pennsylvania.”