Nature-based solutions
The plan also notes that nature-based features, such as restoring wetlands and fortifying shorelines using dredge materials and structures like oyster reefs, could be “added to the plan in the future.” Another future consideration could be “non-structural” measures — National Flood Insurance Program refinements; retrofitting buildings to reduce risk of damage from flooding; public awareness campaigns; and managed retreat, which could include zoning changes, easements, home buyouts, and eminent domain.
“Certainly, regional long-term planning should start to incorporate thoughts about how we de-densify the coast,” Herrington said. “Municipalities just don’t look that far out into the future, especially with significant uncertainty related to future storm frequency and long-term sea levels. Plans and policies at the state, county and regional levels that can help us sustain our coastal ecosystem in the future and claw back from the coast when necessary should be discussed and made over the next decade.”
The Corps emphasized that the “Tentatively Selected Plan” is subject to change, and that it has not yet been approved by Congress or funded for implementation.
The “New Jersey Back Bays Study” came about in the wake of Superstorm Sandy, when it became clear that the back bay regions of New Jersey were significantly underprepared for the kind of flooding that Sandy’s storm surge brought, as well as lacking any kind of cohesive infrastructure that could reduce risk to life and property across municipalities.
The 950-square-mile study area encompasses over 674,000 permanent residents and hosts millions more primarily during the three-month summer season, translating to over $40 billion in annual gross domestic product, according to the report. The asset inventory of the region, which equates to 182,930 structures, is worth more than $72 billion.
For all its value, however, this slice of New Jersey is among the most flood-vulnerable regions in the United States. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center, since just 1996, the state has experienced 1,169 flood events.
The cost of insurance claims
The report goes on to note that, according to National Flood Insurance Program statistics, “flood claims payouts [in New Jersey] have totaled more than $5.3 billion since the beginning of the NFIP program in 1978 through July 2013. Out of that, nearly $2.9 billion was paid for flood damages to the coastal counties of Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May from Hurricane Sandy damages alone.”
Currently, the costs of the back bays study are just over $18 million, which is split between the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the federal government. Following the release of Thursday’s updated report, the Corps will host virtual public meetings on Sept. 20 and 21. The agency hopes that the feasibility portion of the study will conclude in 2023, with a recommended plan for construction authorization and Chief of Engineer’s report. The earliest that any construction could start, Rochette said, would be 2030.
In an interview with NJ Spotlight News in May, Department of Environmental Protection Commissioner Shawn LaTourette was asked about the massive scale of the back bays study. He recalled an analogy that one of his counterparts in the Pacific Northwest had recently made.
“She said, ‘There’s no silver bullet, it’s silver buckshot,’” LaTourette said. “We’ve got to look at this as some types of solutions in one place and other types of solutions in another. It’s not going to be the case that we pick up whole communities and move them inland. That won’t be necessary in all spaces, but we need to consider where it will and won’t be with what we’re building today, because we know better.”