The state’s political environment shifted decidedly to the left during the Trump administration, with Democrats picking up all but one House seat in the state in 2018. They lost a second one when Jeff Van Drew left the Democratic Party over Trump’s first impeachment. Murphy himself won election in the first year of Trump’s presidency running on a self-styled progressive platform. His win was helped by the unpopularity of Christie, whose top lieutenant ran against Murphy in the 2017 race.
“When you look which way the wind is blowing, it is very tough for a candidate to be a good candidate if the wind is not blowing at your back,” said Assembly Republican leader Jon Bramnick. “And in New Jersey, the wind is blowing definitely more Democratic.”
Shavonda Sumter, a Democratic Assembly member and chair of the Legislative Black Caucus, said the push for more progressive policies like early in-person voting and expanded vote by mail began at least a decade ago. Those policies, vetoed by Christie, became law after Murphy became governor.
Sumter sees the real turning point coming in 2020 during the national reckoning on racial injustice followed the killing of George Floyd by police. She said white people’s increased consciousness of the role race can play in politics has helped Democrats politically.
“Folks woke up and realized this fight is not done,” she said.
For Toby Sanders, a Trenton resident who attended a recent Murphy gun control rally in Bloomfield, this year’s governor’s contest is more than just a state race.
“It’s a bellwether for the nation. It’s a foundation to build on,” said Sanders, who considers himself a progressive.
For other voters, state and local issues are more important.
Mike Gardner, a municipal party official and retired attorney who worked at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, said his top issue is getting rid of the high property taxes. He backs Ciattarelli.
Jim Arakelian, a real estate agent and retired law enforcement official, said he doesn’t think police officers have been respected by the Murphy administration, citing the decision to release certain police disciplinary records as a big concern. He’s also skeptical about the media and the polling in the race, citing 2016 and Trump’s surprise victory.
“Polls can be skewed anyway the press wants,” said Arakelian, who attended a Ciattarelli campaign stop at a New Milford pizzeria.
In their own way, some Democratic voters are also skeptical about polls, not wanting to take them for granted.
“America is contested space right now. There is a battle quietly and loudly going on,” Sanders said.