In this Feb. 4, 2019 file photo, an Oscar statue appears at the 91st Academy Awards Nominees Luncheon in Beverly Hills, Calif. (Photo by Danny Moloshok/Invision/AP, File)
his story originally appeared on 6abc.
If you’re filling out an Oscar ballot at home, you’ll want to check the stats with a mathematician and movie lover from Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.
Ben Zauzmer from Upper Dublin calls his system “Oscarmetrics” and he wrote the book on it.
He says it all started when he was a freshman at Harvard University.
“I just wanted to find a way to calculate the percentage chance of each nominee in every category,” Zauzmer says. “I wasn’t able to find that, so I just decided to do it myself.”
This year, the Oscarmetrics predict some strong winners.
“Best Picture and Best Director are looking like ‘Oppenheimer‘ and Christopher Nolan pretty clearly,” Zauzmer says. “For the Supporting Actor race, you’ve got Robert Downey Jr. from ‘Oppenheimer’ and Da’Vine Joy Randolph from ‘The Holdovers’ as very strong front runners.”
“It would be a major shock if Da’Vine doesn’t bring that Oscar home to Philadelphia. She has a higher percentage chance than any nominee in any other category. She’s at 91%,” he added.
Best Actor, Zauzmer says, is looking good for ‘Oppenheimer’s’ Cillian Murphy, over Bradley Cooper and Colman Domingo.
For Best Actress, Zauzmer says Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are in a near-dead heat.
“They are as split as can be on my model,” Zauzmer says. “There’s only a 1.3% difference between their two odds. It slightly favors Lily Gladstone for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.'”
Josh Singer is up for Best Original Screenplay for ‘Maestro.’
“Josh Singer and I actually share a high school alma mater. We’re both Upper Dublin High School grads and Harvard grads as well, so it would be very fun to see him win. He also has a ‘Spotlight’ on his resume,” Zauzmer said.
But the Oscarmetrics don’t seem to be in Singer’s favor.
“That’s looking like ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ at 43%, but it’s still an open race,” he says.
Zauzmer says it’s looking good for Jennifer Lame, for Best Film Editing.
“She is at over 50% to win,” he says. “This will be her first Oscar for editing ‘Oppenheimer.’ It’s just an epic three-hour masterpiece.”