There, Republican David McCormick is trying to knock off three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in a presidential battleground undercard that both sides say is close.
McCormick, a former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, has hammered the message in two debates that Casey is a “sure thing” to back the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.
In recent days, Casey began running an ad in conservative areas that touts his “greedflation” legislation to pursue price-gouging. The ad says “Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking” and “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs.
Republicans say Casey’s ad showing Trump is similar to a TV ad that Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin is airing and speaks to both Democrats’ need to protect themselves against Harris’ vulnerability in their states.
“They’re hoping to peel off enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.
Still, Casey ran a similar ad in 2018’s midterm election when he won easily — even though that ad didn’t mention Trump — while Casey’s campaign notes that he has long split with Democrats by opposing free trade agreements and supporting fossil fuel-power projects.
Democrats, conversely, say they are forcing competitive contests late in the campaign in two red states, Texas and Nebraska. Ousting incumbent Republicans from one or both of those seats could help Democrats to at least a 50-50 split in the Senate should Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.
In Texas, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former professional football player, has proven adept at raising small-dollar donations in his challenge to incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred has outraised every Senate candidate nationally, except Tester and Brown.
The ad spending advantage for Allred has been 3-to-2, according to AdImpact, with the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC touting a new seven-figure digital ad buy and a separate $5 million TV ad buy attacking Cruz on a key issue for Democrats, abortion rights.
On top of that, Democrats hope Harris’ rally in Houston on Friday with Allred and Beyoncé can help Allred by boosting Black voter turnout.
In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn — a tattooed former labor leader who supports abortion rights — appears to have consolidated Democratic and independent voters while making some inroads with Republicans, Democratic strategists say.
While Osborn is running as an independent and hasn’t said which party he’d caucus with, he’s getting support from a liberal super PAC that has helped him amass a significant spending advantage over Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.
In both states, Republicans acknowledge that they’ve had to spend money unexpectedly to shore up their incumbents’ prospects, but they also say they expect to win comfortably.
In Ohio, Brown has tried to personalize his appeal by appearing in most of his own ads and speaking directly into the camera.
“I’m Sherrod Brown and I have a question,” Brown says, looking into the camera and leaning his elbow on what might be a wood-working shop table. “Have you ever heard Bernie Moreno talk about what he’s going to do for Ohio?”
Brown also makes a personal appeal to potential swing voters, saying he has spent his career fighting for workers and veterans and working with law enforcement and “presidents of both parties to do what’s best for our state.”
Elsewhere, strategists expect first-term Florida Sen. Rick Scott will fend off a challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and that Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in deep-blue Maryland will beat former Gov. Larry Hogan to fill a seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.
Associated Press reporter Julie Carr Smyth in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report.