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The Polymarket prediction market website is seen on a computer screen, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Wyatte Grantham-Philips)
Prediction markets are taking off. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let users bet on the outcome of almost anything that captures attention — a play in a football game, a song in a halftime show, the winner of an election or Oscar, or even the weekend weather.
It seems like almost everything is up for a wager.
And the scale is staggering. Around the Super Bowl alone, prediction markets saw over $1.2 billion in trades. On Kalshi, bettors wagered over $100 million on Bad Bunny’s opening song and over $45 million on potential guest performers.
So why are prediction markets booming right now, and how do they actually work? Boosters say they are the “most accurate thing we have as mankind” and push users to do deep research on all sorts of issues. But with concerns about insider trading, what regulations exist to keep these platforms fair and transparent?
Today, we pull back the curtain on prediction markets: who’s using them, how they make money, and the real risks and rewards beneath the hype. We also ask a bigger question: why does it feel like betting has now woven itself into every corner of life?
Guests:
Danny Funt, reporter and author of Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling
Bobby Allyn, NPR reporter covering the technology industry