New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is slumping in the polls both at home and in states key to his bid for president.
But if you believe oddsmakers, he may have a better chance of making it to the Oval Office than those polls indicate.
Christie’s chances of winning the presidency right now are 10-1, according to bookmaking company William Hill. That’s fourth place behind Hillary Clinton, at 2-1; Marco Rubio, at 6-1; and Jeb Bush, at 9-1.
That 10-1 assessment may not be entirely reliable, warned Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University.
“That figure reflects more the odds that the public believes that he has of winning than what his actual odds are,” Crane said. “And I guess it could be the case that those odds agree.”
However, oddsmakers probably apply some real science in their calculations, he said.
“I imagine that it incorporates information that they have about what the public’s perception of these candidates is, and that might come from polling data,” he said. “So there might be scientific component in that regard.”
Oddsmakers might also using experience from past elections to weigh Christie’s chances, Crane added.
To be included in the first Republican primary debate of the presidential race in August, Christie needs to poll in the top 10 GOP candidates nationwide.
This article has been updated to correct a spelling error.