There’s a 50 percent chance that a tropical disturbance will form within 48 hours, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center late Monday morning.
The disturbance, consisting of shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure, is located between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
“Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs of organization,” said Senior Hurricane Specialist Michael Brennan and U.S. Navy Hurricane Specialist Dave Roberts. “Satellite data also indicate that a closed circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a small area of winds near tropical storm force.”
The forecasters said that a tropical depression could develop over the next few days as the disturbance tracks in a westward to west-northwestward direction at 15 to 20 mph.
But after that time, “environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development,” the forecasters said.
Only one named storm, Arthur, has formed since the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 until November 30.
Historically, the season peaks on September 10.