Analyzing the H1N1 flu epidemic
Thursday, April 15th, 2010
A year after most of us started hearing about the H1N1 virus; health officials are still counting up the flu cases and tracking the public's reaction. WHYY asked how the new flu changes things for the future.
In Pennsylvania, more people got the flu in 2009 compared to any year in recent history. Children and young adults were hardest hit. All but five confirmed cases statewide were H1N1.
There were fewer hospitalizations and deaths than predicted. It's not clear why. Experts say it might be that the new flu gave a pass to many seniors, who are more susceptible to flu complications. Marla Gold is Dean of the Drexel University School of Public Health.
Gold: When people say: 'It wasn't so bad, there were so many deaths as you said there would be.' In public health, we say to you: 'There weren't so many deaths because people got vaccinated and also practiced really good hygiene with hand washing and understood in protecting yourself from disease you are protecting others about disease.’
Last year, many more people than usual got the flu vaccine, both types, for protection against the seasonal and H1N1 strains. This fall, there will be just one flu shot designed to ward off H1N1 and the more common viruses.
Dr. Stephen Ostroff leads the Pennsylvania Bureau of Epidemiology.
Ostroff: So looking back from October 1st to the present, in the entire state of Pennsylvania, there have only been five recorded, confirmed cases of influenza due to the seasonal strains, everything else that we've seen has been due to the pandemic influenza.
There's lots of speculation about why the seasonal flu went on holiday this winter. But Ostroff says you have to keep in mind that flu strains compete. H1N1 may have crowded out the seasonal strains. Experts are waiting to see if the seasonal flu will re-emerge.
THE FALLACY THAT THE DRUGS STRATEGY WILL SAVE US FROM A PANDEMIC
The facts are taking the most powerful and still richest country in the world the USA as an example,
Initial Detection
Time Scale – 0 months
Swine Flu first detected – Influenza A, Novel H1N1 "swine flu" was first detected in Mexico City and was made public March 18, 2009. Therefore the first causality was probably at the beginning of March 2009 taking into account the incubation period.
First Death in USA
Time Scale + 2-months later
at the end of April 2009
1st Vaccine Approved
Time Scale + 6 months 2 weeks
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the new swine flu vaccine for use in the United States on September 15, 2009.
Vaccine 1st ready for use in USA
Time Scale + 7 months 1 week
The vaccine was first ready from mass production and used on 5th October 2009 in the USA
Most Vaccinated City in the USA by 22nd March 2010
Time Scale + 1 year 1month 1 week
Massachusetts vaccinated more residents against the swine flu and seasonal flu in the fall and winter than any other state.
Up to the end of Winter (March 2010) – The Massachusetts Department of Public Health says 36 percent of residents were inoculated against the swine flu, also known as H1N1, compared with 21 percent nationally. Seasonal flu vaccinations were administered to 57 percent of the population, compared with 37 percent nationwide.
A mere 36% in one USA city and where nationally only 21% had the vaccine by March 22nd 2010.
The Spanish flu of 1918/19 did its worst in the second wave between week 16 and week 26.
Considering this fact by the time we get any vaccine, most of us will be well dead. Fact not fiction. Therefore the vaccine strategy is totally flawed and we have to move from this stupid strategy to a standpoint of never letting it happen in the first place – the preventative strategy not cure strategy and the only strategy that will actually work.
That strategy is – http://avian-influenza.cirad.fr/content/download/1931/11789/file/Kennedy-F-Shortridge.pdf