Inquirer columnist Karen Heller adds to the chorus of pundits and observers who are painting a pretty bleak picture for 2009:

The problem with stalling an $8 million savings here, and reinstating a $300,000 cut there is that, soon, you’re talking real money.

People are arguing about tiny bandages on a hemorrhaging gash.

And here’s the bigger problem: The initial projection was too kind.

Philadelphia, according to city finance experts, is facing a shortfall as great as $1.5 billion.

My question after reading this twice is what are we supposed to do about it?  I suppose this column is a chance to let us know how back things are going to get so we’re not surprised.  It’s also a chance for Heller to read us the riot act and ask us, essentially, “what the heck do you expect? The whole nation’s economy is in the tank and we’re grousing about a parade?”  At the same time, I’m still having a hard time wrapping my head around what it will look like when we reach “the bone” as she puts it or what fiscal watchdog Uri Monson’s “big, ugly cuts” will mean for me (and you).

If a projected $750 million deficit resulted in a “rebalancing” plan that included the now famous library branch and fire station closings, what will a $1.5 billion 5-year deficit mean in terms of service cuts or tax increases?  Could trash pick up be reduced to every other week?  Will the lights be turned out along the Schuylkill River jogging path?  Will my wage tax rate creep back up over 4% or will the property tax rate be raised for the first time since the early 1990s?

I admit it.  I am not particularly city service dependent, nor am I a heavy user of city services voluntarily.  I don’t go to my local library branch.  I don’t deal with the city as a small business owner.  I live in a neighborhood with a lot of “eyes on the street” so fortunately lower levels of crime.  I don’t really ever have a reason to call 311 or, fortunately, 911.  So aside from the trash and recycling pick up, there’s not a lot that I would obviously miss if cuts were made.  If I ever do have a fire at my house or need the police, an increase in response time won’t mean much to me since I, personally, will not have had any previous police or fire calls for comparison.  It will suck but I won’t know how much.   In fact, the most direct effect that a budget gap would have on me would be a massive tax increase.

But I also understand that there are plenty of folks out there who do use the public library branch for their internet access, books, DVDs, etc.  There are a lot of people who use recreation department fields, gyms, basketball courts and pools.  Many people depend on the city for social services.  I get the connection between how the fate of the least well off among us also “trickles up” to affect those who are otherwise doing ok.  And at the moral and ethical level, I know that it’s wrong to ignore their suffering.

What I’m curious about from this blog’s audience is where do you fall along this spectrum of Philadelphians?  What cuts would have to be made for you to really “feel” the city’s fiscal woes?  Obviously if you are a city employee, those cuts may come in the form of a reduction in your salary increase or greater requirements to your contributions to your health and pension plans.  For non city employees, when do you think you’ll see the budget cuts as something more than just a newspaper story?  Have you seen them already?

I guess I’ll start with the most important.  I feel safe in my neighborhood.  If cuts result in a decrease in the number of cops which leads to an increase in street crime and property crime in my neighborhood… well… that’s when I’ll feel it.  The question is, is a $1.5 billion deficit enough to cause that?