Photo by Flickr user iFranz. Creative Commons License

Greater, Greater Washington’s Cavan Wilk posted a fantastic piece about the possible end of shopping malls that had me wondering what the changing economics of these staples of suburbia could mean for this region.  Wilk’s points to a recent piece in Slate that is among the first from outside of the traditional “urbanist” movement - where one would expect to find folks prescribing the closing of shopping malls - to call for a wholesale rethinking of the shopping mall model:

Even writers from the urbanist community don’t advocate wholesale closing of malls, acknowledging that malls are private property. While economic commentator Mike “Mish” Shedlock declared that the “Shopping Center Economic Model is History” back in April 2008, he made no comment about where to go from here; as a libertarian-leaning economics and finance writer, urban planning and infrastructure are outside the scope of Mish’s blog. As far as I know, no one outside the urbanist community has previously concluded that it would be okay or even positive for malls to go out of business, and for the stores to relocate to Main Streets.  What a year it’s been.

While conceding that it’s unlikely that all shopping malls will suddenly go away, Wilk does note that in Washington D.C. at least, a number of retailers are turning away from the auto-oriented locations along suburban arterials with large parking lots and focusing on downtown stores in walkable locations:

But these stores [Banana Republic, Anne Taylor, Express, Guess, Kenneth Cole] have found success opening stores in walkable urban places. In the District of Columbia, there are four shopping districts that support clusters of national retail chains that are usually mall-based: Downtown (Old Downtown clustered around Metro Center), Connecticut Avenue between Farragut Square and Dupont Circle, Friendship Heights, and Georgetown. Columbia Heights is emerging and has a different mix of retailers. Additionally, some clothing stores that usually locate in malls have opened shop in the Fenton Street development in Silver Spring.

Wilk concludes that are there are a couple directions that this retail-driven revitalization of urban spaces could go.  Large corporate chain stores like those cited above and other retailers like Apple could continue to bid up rents in previously revitalized places driving out the legacy mom-and-pop operations.  To some degree we may have already seen this with the recent announcement that Restaurant Row pioneer Brasserie Perrier lost its lease because of a sharp increase in rent over its original 1996 rent.  It’s unclear what will be moving into that prime location but it’s likely to be another national chain with the willingness to throw a ton of money around to be in Philadelphia’s premiere retail stretch.

Wilk says that corporate outfits, without the on-the-ground knowledge of a city are not necessarily interested in finding lower rent corridors with good access to public transit (Girard Avenue, Frankford Avenue, Northern Liberties, Passyunk Avenue, etc.) and potential to revitalize.  So just as the Apple Store in D.C. is looking to move into Georgetown and not the Shaw Historic District, we in Philly get rumors of an Apple store (the sign that your city has “made it”) at Rittenhouse Square, not on 52nd Street.

But back to the original question about that benevolent monarch who draws scores of his subjects in their shiny metal chariots every weekend - the King of Prussia Mall.  Wilks concludes in the piece on D.C. that:

As a result, all these stores that are getting displaced from dying malls are in for a rough ride. In the big picture, most players in the commercial real estate game have no idea what consumers want right now. Most consumers don’t either. However, consumers are voting with their dollars that they don’t want the suburban mall anymore. In other words, strap in because we’re in for a really rough ride in retail, as our nation enters a period of cognitive dissonance that will mark the historic boundary between the post World War II oil-and-corn-syrup economy, and whatever emerges next. Based on the trends in commercial real estate, a more urban future looks bright on the other side.

My special brand of Philadelphia cynism (on display in my recent prediction about the Eagles) prohibits me from being so sanguine about the future of retail in this region.  While it would be great for specialty retailers, like the one’s cited above, and department stores to look to the city and its many commercial corridors, many of the obstacles that drove them out in the first place are still in place.

1. Parking and Driving.  While I can think of no worse torture than puttering along at 20 miles per hour on the Schuylkill Expressway and driving around for another 20 minutes to find a parking space that’s a lovely 10 minute walk from the mall doors, others can’t imagine a shopping trip without their own personal taxi to store their wares.  Increasing parking and encouraging driving in Center City and other commercial corridors would completely defeat the environmental and experiential benefits of the urban walkable experience.  To the extent that there are people who would never go shopping without their car, Philly can’t be a shopping destination for them.  Which leads me to…

2. …mass transit.  There are those who are on the margin and can be convinced to take public transit into town for a shopping trip.  The combination of regional rail, the El and the Subway actually come close to reaching a number of commercial corridors.   There’s even plenty of evidence to show that rising fuel costs are causing more folks to use public transit to get to the city, presumably for work and entertainment purposes.  However, the infrequency of many lines, the appearance of many stations and the design of some of the train cars make them unattractive alternatives for the retail shopping rider.  SEPTA is taking steps to improve and the new regional rail cars may make the situation better.

3. The 1% rule.  Shopping in the Philadelphia suburbs automatically means a 1% discount since Philadelphia is subjected to a 7% sales tax as compared to the statewide 6% (dating back to when the state bailed out a nearly bankrupt city in 1991).  Even if the cost of transit into the city for close-in suburbanites proves much cheaper than driving (not to mention the negative externalities associated with pollution and lack of exercise), without that cost appearing on the sales receipt, like the 7% sales tax, most people aren’t going to think about it.  They will, however, see that spending $1000 at Banana Republic (update: reader correctly points out that there is no sales tax on clothing in PA) at a popular electronics retailer means an extra 10 bucks in Philly.

4. The Danger Factor.  Cities can be scary places for people who aren’t used to them.  For a lot of folks in this media market, the dominant image of Philadelphia is the oft-reported story on local tv news of the late night street complete with flashing police lights and crime scene tape or stories of rampaging teens beating up SEPTA riders.  Never mind that this perception of the retail experience in Philadelphia is way off base.  Somehow, dealing with throngs of suburban teens wandering around in the mall, by contrast, seems less daunting to people.

5. The Quality of Life things.  Malls have places to sit and rest.  Malls have bathrooms that are clean and, sometimes, easy to find.  Malls keep patrons sheltered from the elements.  Public areas in malls are, for the most part, kept clean and free of debris and the homeless.  The bathrooms issue is not to be taken lightly.  It can be difficult to find a bathroom in the stores that occupy many of the city’s older buildings and until these cool pay toilets are on every corner, folks are going to be deterred by having no place to go.

I’m sure there are a ton of other factors to back up my skepticism at the return of retail to Philadelphia and I invite you, the readers, to offer your thoughts on why folks might not be so eager to shop here or your thoughts on why I’m being too skeptical.

Regarding the Apple Store example cited in Greater, Greater Washington and modified for Philadelphia, I wonder whether the draw that such a store has for iPod, iPhone and Mac fans could outweigh their hesitancy to travel to a spot like the 52nd Street corridor?  The El runs frequently enough and is easy to get to from the western and northeastern suburbs and Center City.  Most of the products bought at such a store are easy to carry on a train.  Would you take the trip to such a location?