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By Shannon Curley

Despite the clear lead Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is showing over Republican John McCain in national surveys there has been persistent speculation that Obama will fall victim to the “Bradley effect” and that the election will actually be much closer than the polling numbers are projecting.

The term Bradley effect refers to the theory that white voters will tell pollsters that they would vote for a black candidate or are undecided, but when they actually vote, they go for the white candidate. The Bradley effect gets its name from the 1982 California gubernatorial election where black candidate Tom Bradley lost the election to his white opponent George Deukmejian, despite showing a large lead in exit polls. Some experts, however, refute this theory.

“I think it’s somewhat of an urban political legend,” said John Kennedy, Professor of Political Science at West Chester University. “It’s all part of the narrative.”

Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of The Gallup Poll, says that the Bradley effect is merely “a myth that’s grown over the years.”

“There’s no strong evidence to suggest that it exists,” said Newport, pointing out that even the effect may not have even taken place during the Bradley/Deukmejian election. There were other polls done in the same race that showed Bradley losing, and the exit polls did not take absentee ballots, of which the majority went to Deukmejian.

“It’s presumptuous for him to say that,” said Jerry Mondesire, President of the Philadelphia chapter of the NAACP. Mondesire went on to say that nobody knows if the effect exists, but it can’t be ruled out.

“I think white people lie [so as not to appear racist],”said Mondesire. He pointed to other elections, including Philadelphia’s own 1987 mayoral race between Wilson Goode and Frank Rizzo, to show that there have been clear instances of disparities between polling data and election results.

All three men maintain that the real issue is getting what Newport calls “the right turnout.” Polls make an effort to survey likely voters which is a better indicator in gauging the race.

In this election cycle, there are new complicating factors for pollsters. There have been record numbers of new voter registrations, and there is an energetic youth movement surrounding the Obama campaign. Because so many young voters are primarily cell phone users, they are unlikely to be contacted using traditional landline surveying, therefore older voters can be more heavily sampled. These changes make it harder to get an accurate view of the political landscape.

“I don’t think you’re going to have a situation out there where people are lying to pollsters. There may be some undecided’s breaking for McCain,” said Kennedy. “If you look at the national surveys, some have it closer than others. They’re still trying to decide what turnout will be.”

According to Mondesire, Obama is a new kind of candidate and he brings a new kind of voter to the table. “New voters could give him Virginia. He could win North Carolina where the founder of the KKK was born.”

“It could be an overwhelming ass-kicking, or it could be a nail-biter,” said Mondesire.

Shannon Curley is an intern for It’s Our City and is a senior at La Salle University in Philadelphia.

We want to know what you think. Do you think the “Bradley effect” is real? Do you know white voters who don’t want to admit it, but they won’t vote for a black candidate? Are the national polls showing Obama with a lead misleading?