John McCain and Sarah Palin spent Tuesday campaigning in Pennsylvania, but they should put their time to better use. It’s over in Pennsylvania and the winner will be Barack Obama.

The public polls say it. The political experts say it. In private, even Republican leaders concede it. Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes are going to Obama.

What looked like a promising state for McCain in August, has turned blue, in more ways than one. Ever since the economy became the No. 1 issue, McCain has sunk and Obama surged. In the latest (Oct. 6) tracking poll done by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, the Democrat held a 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.

No one expects the final margin to be 11 points – that would translate into a landslide 650,000-vote win. The McCain-Palin ticket will win big in central Pennsylvania. It may fight to a draw in the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre area. It will lose in the Pittsburgh media market, but could keep the race close there..

But, the Republican ticket is going to get whacked – and whacked hard – in the suburbs and city of Philadelphia. Obama is going to win the region by margins so substantial McCain could fight the Democrat to a draw in the rest of the state and still lose.

This is the new reality of Pennsylvania politics. You have hyper-Democratic Philadelphia, where Democrats now outnumber Republicans by 6-1, joined by increasingly Democratic suburbs. It’s a lethal combination for Republican candidates, especially since the southeast is home to one-third of the state’s voters.

It wasn’t always this way. Up until the 1990’s, the Republican equation on “How to Win Pennsylvania” involved a simple two-step when it came to Philly and environs: You lose big in the city, but win big in the four very Republican suburban counties. The GOP votes in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery Counties cancel out Philadelphia.

Republicans dominated the suburbs. Brookings Institution report: The Political Geography of Pennsylvania:Not Another Rust Belt State

x

Republicans begin to lose ground outside Philadelphia

x

Democrats strengthen their numbers

x

Let’s go back 20 years for an example. In the Michael Dukakis v. Bush the Elder race in 1988, Dukakis emerged from Philadelphia with a 230,000-vote margin. He lost the suburbs by 206,000 votes. He left the region with only a 26,000-vote cushion tucked under his arm, got clobbered in central Pennsylvania, had an anemic showing in the Pittsburgh area and ended up losing the state by 105,000 votes.

Since then, Philly has become even more Democratic and the ‘burbs less Republican. So, let’s fast forward to 2004 and John Kerry vs. Bush the Younger race.

Kerry won Philadelphia by a 412,000-vote margin. He won the four suburban counties by an 87,000-vote margin. He left the region with a 499,000-vote surplus. Even though he lost the Scranton media market, got clobbered in central Pennsylvania and barely won the Pittsburgh region, he survived to win Pennsylvania by 144,000 votes.

Since 2004, the ‘burbs have become more Democratic. Republicans have lost 102,000 voters, while the Democrats have gained 112,000. Most of this growth is due to Republicans switching their registration to Democratic.

On Nov. 4, Obama probably will emerge from Philly with around a 400,000-vote margin, but he should do better than Kerry in the suburbs. He is likely to win Montgomery and Bucks Counties, lose Chester County, with Delaware County listed as a toss up. Obama’s overall suburban margin? Hard to say, but 150,000 votes sounds about right.

There simply aren’t enough McCain votes left in the rest of the state to overcome the 550,000-vote mega-margin Obama will get in the southeast on Election Day.

The bottom line: Obama wins Pennsylvania with ease.

Tom Ferrick is a contributing writer for It’s Our City. He is a former columnist and reporter for The Philadelphia Inquirer. Read Tom’s past stories for It’ s Our City.

Image credit: jbaccile/Flickr

Related link: Brooking Institution report The Political Geography of Pennsylvania